Another Trump Win! He Just Smashed Expectations

Philip Yabut

The Commerce Department released the GDP numbers.

4.3 percent growth. Annualized. Inflation-adjusted. The fastest pace in two years.

Economists expected 3.2 percent. They got 4.3 percent.

That’s not beating expectations. That’s smashing them.

White House spokesman Kush Desai called it exactly what it is:

“Today’s blockbuster, expectation-smashing GDP report is the latest proof that President Trump’s America First trade and economic agenda continues to turn the page on the Biden economic disaster.”

Consumer Spending Surged Way Beyond What Economists Predicted

The consumer spending numbers tell the real story.

Spending grew at 3.5 percent — up from 2.5 percent in the second quarter.

Economists expected 2.7 percent. They got 3.5 percent.

Americans aren’t just spending. They’re spending with confidence. They’re opening their wallets because they believe the economy is getting better.

That confidence is the Trump effect. People see an administration focused on growth, and they act accordingly.

Trump’s Trade Policies Are Actually Adding to Growth — Not Hurting It

Remember all those economists warning that Trump’s tariffs would crash the economy?

Here’s what actually happened:

Exports rose 8.8 percent.

Imports fell 4.7 percent.

Exports add to GDP. Imports subtract. Trump’s trade policies contributed to growth, not recession.

The “experts” were wrong. Again.

America First trade policy isn’t just about protecting workers — though it does that too. It’s about building an economy where American production matters again.

Corporate Profits Absolutely Exploded

Buried in the report is a number that should make every investor smile.

Corporate profits rose at a 17.9 percent annual rate.

That’s after adjusting for inventory pricing effects and depreciation. Real profit growth.

When profits surge, companies invest. They hire. They expand. They raise wages to attract workers.

The profit boom means the growth boom has legs. This isn’t a one-quarter sugar high. It’s sustainable expansion.

Before Inflation Adjustment, Growth Was 8.2 Percent

Here’s a number that puts the strength in perspective.

Before the inflation adjustment, the economy grew at 8.2 percent.

That’s the raw growth rate. The 4.3 percent figure accounts for price increases.

Even after subtracting inflation, growth was explosive. The underlying economy is generating enormous output.

Private Sector Demand Remains Strong and Getting Stronger

Economists look at different slices of GDP to understand what’s driving growth.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — what some economists consider the clearest measure of private sector health — grew at 3.0 percent.

That’s up slightly from the second quarter. Private demand is strong and gathering steam.

This isn’t government-driven growth. It’s not stimulus checks creating temporary spending. It’s the private sector expanding because conditions are right for expansion.

The Housing Market Is Still Sluggish — But That’s About Interest Rates

Not everything in the report was perfect.

Residential investment declined 5.1 percent. The housing market remains slow.

That’s a Federal Reserve problem, not a Trump policy problem. High mortgage rates are keeping buyers sidelined.

As the Fed continues cutting rates — and they will — housing should recover. That’s additional growth waiting to be unlocked.

Inventory Drawdowns Will Reverse and Add to Future Growth

Private inventory investment subtracted 0.22 points from growth.

Wholesalers and manufacturers drew down stocks rather than building them.

That’s actually good news for future quarters. When inventories get rebuilt, it adds to GDP.

The third quarter growth happened despite the inventory drag. When that reverses, growth could be even stronger.

“President Trump Built the Greatest Economy in the World in His First Term”

The White House connected current performance to Trump’s track record:

“President Trump built the greatest economy in the world in his first term, and he’s in the process of doing it all over again.”

Before COVID, Trump’s economy delivered low unemployment, rising wages, and strong growth.

Now he’s rebuilding. The 4.3 percent number shows the reconstruction is well underway.

“Americans Can Count on Benefiting From a Historic Economic Boom in 2026”

The White House is making a prediction:

“Americans can count on benefitting from a historic economic boom in 2026.”

That’s a bold claim. But the fundamentals support it.

Consumer spending accelerating. Exports surging. Corporate profits exploding. Private sector demand strengthening.

If these trends continue, 2026 could indeed be historic.

This Report May Be More Reliable Than Usual

The GDP report was delayed by the government shutdown.

Because of the delay, this “initial estimate” actually combines data typically used for both the advance and second estimates.

That means it may be more reliable than usual first readings. Less likely to be revised significantly.

The 4.3 percent number is probably close to final. What you see is what you get.

The “Biden Economic Disaster” Is Being Reversed

The White House framing is important:

“President Trump’s America First trade and economic agenda continues to turn the page on the Biden economic disaster.”

Biden left office with inflation, stagnant wages, and economic anxiety.

Trump is delivering growth, rising confidence, and expanding output.

The contrast is measurable. The GDP report quantifies it.

8.8 Percent Export Growth — The Trade War Is Being Won

That export number deserves emphasis.

8.8 percent export growth. In a single quarter.

American goods are finding markets abroad. American production is competitive. American workers are making things the world wants to buy.

Critics said tariffs would isolate America economically. Instead, exports are surging.

The trade war isn’t hurting growth. It’s contributing to it.

What the Numbers Mean for 2026 Midterms

Economic growth matters politically.

When the economy is expanding, the president’s party does better in elections. When it’s contracting, they suffer.

4.3 percent growth heading into 2026 is excellent news for Republicans.

If the “historic economic boom” materializes as the White House predicts, the usual midterm losses could be minimized or even reversed.

Democrats are already worried. These numbers give them more to worry about.

The Trump Economy Is Back

Remember the economy before COVID?

Record low unemployment. Rising wages across all demographics. Manufacturing returning. Optimism spreading.

That economy is coming back.

4.3 percent growth. Fastest in two years. Smashing expectations.

“President Trump built the greatest economy in the world in his first term, and he’s in the process of doing it all over again.”

The numbers don’t lie. The Trump boom is real.


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